Novartis reported this week that the Phase 3 HARBOR study evaluating del-desiran in people living with myotonic dystrophy type 1 (DM1) did not demonstrate statistically significant improvement versus placebo on the primary endpoint.
Del-desiran is one of three antibody oligonucleotide conjugate (AOC) therapies added to the Novartis neuromuscular pipeline through the acquisition of Avidity Biosciences (acquired in Feb 2026 for USD 12 bn).
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We had assumed USD 3 bn peak sales for deldesiran with a risk adjustment of 50%, which we now remove from our model, leading to a CHF 3 lower price target per share at CHF 125 from CHF 128. Despite the announcement, Novartis has reiterated its guidance for average annual sales growth of 5-6% over 2025-30. This is the second major setback for Novartis after the failure ofpelacarsen. Regarding the other two therapies acquired from Avidity, we do not make any changes at this time for our combined peak sales estimate of USD 2.25 bn with 60% risk adjustment, but the news has not helped our confidence. We derive a new price target of CHF 125 (old: CHF 128) and maintain our Hold rating.
Source: Vontobel Equity Research (08/09/2026)
In this context, we present the following opportunities Outperformance Certificate on Novartis.
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